FC Kaiserslautern 0–3 Holstein Kiel: Result & Stats

FC Kaiserslautern

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Holstein Kiel

11/26/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 14Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

FC Kaiserslautern43%

×Draw23%

Holstein Kiel34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KaiserslauternExpected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.50

FC Kaiserslautern

1.70

Holstein Kiel

1.50

FC Kaiserslautern creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 119 away

1.87

creates per match

1.59

1.41

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.87

Holstein Kiel

1.59

allows per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.41

Holstein Kiel

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kaiserslautern ↓

Holstein Kiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Kaiserslautern or draw

66%

FC Kaiserslautern or Holstein Kiel

77%

Draw or Holstein Kiel

57%

Winning margin

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

22%

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

82%

FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

51%

FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

24%

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

78%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

44%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

56%

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.70

Holstein Kiel attack 1.59 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Kaiserslautern scores more

43%

level

23%

Holstein Kiel scores more

34%

FC Kaiserslautern at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff