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1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Kaiserslautern
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
11/23/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 13Fritz Walter Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern43%
×Draw23%
Holstein Kiel34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.70
Holstein Kiel
1.50

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 118 away

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.87
Holstein Kiel
1.58

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.41
Holstein Kiel
1.53

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw
66%
1. FC Kaiserslautern or Holstein Kiel
77%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
57%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
22%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
82%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
51%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
24%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
78%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
44%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
56%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.53 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Holstein Kiel attack 1.58 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more
43%
level
23%
Holstein Kiel scores more
34%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4–1 Holstein Kiel

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat Holstein Kiel 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Fritz Walter Stadion in Kaiserslautern.