FC Juarez 0–0 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

FC Juarez

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santos Laguna

2/19/2022

Liga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Juarez47%

×Draw24%

Santos Laguna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC JuarezExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.26

FC Juarez

1.67

Santos Laguna

1.26

FC Juarez creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.39

creates per match

1.61

0.91

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

FC Juarez

1.39

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

FC Juarez

0.91

Santos Laguna

1.95

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

FC Juarez+0.01on par

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw

71%

FC Juarez or Santos Laguna

76%

Draw or Santos Laguna

53%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+

25%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals

81%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

50%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

23%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

72%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

36%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

62%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.91 · 5 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.39 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + FC Juarez defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Juarez scores more

47%

level

24%

Santos Laguna scores more

29%

FC Juarez at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. González

FC Juarez · G

7.7

Match Events

32'

43'

45+1'

49'

67'

M. Galván← Anderson Leite

68'

F. Contreras← C. Ramírez

68'

L. Suárez← B. Lozano

70'

J. Esquivel

80'

J. Carrillo← A. Cervantes

83'

F. Pizzichillo← I. Govea

84'

90+1'

90+3'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSantos

Overview

52%Possession48%

6Total Shots11

0Corners8

15Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots11

0On Target3

3Off Target6

3Blocked2

3Inside Box4

3Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

370Total Passes330

270Accurate Passes247

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3