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FC Juarez vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
F. Santos 69'
B. Lozano 90+9' (pen)
E. Aguirre 8'
2/24/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Juarez45%
×Draw25%
Santos Laguna31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.60
Santos Laguna
1.29

FC Juarez creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.25
Santos Laguna
1.61

allows per match

FC Juarez
0.96
Santos Laguna
1.95

finishing

FC Juarez+0.42scores more
Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
69%
FC Juarez or Santos Laguna
75%
Draw or Santos Laguna
55%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
23%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
80%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
47%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
22%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
72%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
37%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
59%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.96 · 6 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.25 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + FC Juarez defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Juarez scores more
45%
level
25%
Santos Laguna scores more
31%

FC Juarez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
D. LezcanoFC JuarezFC Juarez · F
7.5

Match Events

6'
Jefferson Intriago
8'
E. Aguirre↳ E. Orrantía
43'
Dória
64'
F. Santos← M. Rabuñal
69'
F. Santos↳ D. Lezcano
73'
Brian Lozano
76'
D. Valdés← E. Aguirre
77'
B. Rubio← M. Fernández
80'
O. Rivero← J. Furch
81'
Hugo Rodriguez
82'
Angelo Sagal
86'
E. Castillo← E. Orrantía
90'
Victor Velazquez
90'
Brian Rubio
90'
Hugo Rodriguez
90'
Hugo Rodriguez
90+9'
B. LozanoPenalty

Possession

56%FC

Shots

17FC

Pass accuracy

52%FC

Statistics

FCSantos
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots10
5Corners3
17Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots10
5On Target4
6Off Target5
6Blocked1
12Inside Box4
5Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
407Total Passes312
288Accurate Passes203
71%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls16
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Liga MX: FC Juarez 1–2 Santos Laguna

Santos Laguna beat FC Juarez 2-1 in Liga MX on February 24, 2020.

Goals: E. Aguirre (8'), F. Santos (69'), B. Lozano (90+9' pen).

FC Juarez controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.