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FC Juarez vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Celaya
Celaya
2/25/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez (Ciudad Juárez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Juarez45%
×Draw28%
Celaya27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.30
Celaya
0.95

FC Juarez creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 119 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.47
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

FC Juarez
0.76
Celaya
1.13

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
73%
FC Juarez or Celaya
72%
Draw or Celaya
55%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
20%
Celaya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
73%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
37%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
14%
Celaya 1+ goals
61%
Celaya 2+ goals
25%
Celaya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
62%
Celaya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.47 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Celaya attack 1.15 + FC Juarez defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Juarez scores more
45%
level
28%
Celaya scores more
27%

FC Juarez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Juarez vs Celaya

FC Juarez beat Celaya 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez (Ciudad Juárez).