Celaya 0–2 FC Juarez: Result & Stats

Celaya

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Juarez

9/16/2018

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Celaya46%

×Draw27%

FC Juarez27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelayaExpected goals in this matchFC Juarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.02

Celaya

1.40

FC Juarez

1.02

Celaya creates 37% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 17 away

1.51

creates per match

1.18

0.87

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Celaya

1.51

FC Juarez

1.18

allows per match

Celaya

0.87

FC Juarez

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

FC Juarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Celaya or draw

73%

Celaya or FC Juarez

73%

Draw or FC Juarez

54%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+

22%

FC Juarez wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals

75%

Celaya 2+ goals

41%

Celaya 3+ goals

17%

FC Juarez 1+ goals

64%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

27%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)

62%

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + FC Juarez defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Juarez attack 1.18 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Celaya scores more

46%

level

27%

FC Juarez scores more

27%

Celaya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff