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FC Juarez vs Atlas — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlas
Atlas
2/28/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FC Juarez41%
×Draw26%
Atlas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.41
Atlas
1.23

FC Juarez creates 15% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 146 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.26
Atlas
1.07

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.39
Atlas
1.56

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
67%
FC Juarez or Atlas
74%
Draw or Atlas
59%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
19%
Atlas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
76%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
41%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
17%
Atlas 1+ goals
71%
Atlas 2+ goals
35%
Atlas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
56%
Atlas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.26 + Atlas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atlas attack 1.07 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Juarez scores more
41%
level
26%
Atlas scores more
33%

FC Juarez at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: FC Juarez 3–1 Atlas

FC Juarez beat Atlas 3-1 in Liga MX on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez in Ciudad Juarez.