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Atlas vs FC Juarez — Liga MX 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Juarez
FC Juarez
10/4/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Atlas46%
×Draw26%
FC Juarez28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.45
FC Juarez
1.06

Atlas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 119 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.12
FC Juarez
0.94

allows per match

Atlas
1.19
FC Juarez
1.77

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

FC Juarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
72%
Atlas or FC Juarez
74%
Draw or FC Juarez
54%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
23%
FC Juarez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
77%
Atlas 2+ goals
42%
Atlas 3+ goals
18%
FC Juarez 1+ goals
65%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
29%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
62%
FC Juarez (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.77 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + FC Juarez defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

FC Juarez attack 0.94 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlas scores more
46%
level
26%
FC Juarez scores more
28%

Atlas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Atlas 3–1 FC Juarez

Atlas beat FC Juarez 3-1 in Liga MX on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.