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FC jazz vs VIFK — Ykkönen 2018

FC jazz
FC jazz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
VIFK
VIFK
5/22/2024YkkönenYkkönen · Round 7Porin Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC jazz48%
×Draw21%
VIFK31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC jazz
2.13
VIFK
1.71

FC jazz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 14 away

creates per match

FC jazz
1.82
VIFK
1.64

allows per match

FC jazz
1.79
VIFK
2.43

finishing

FC jazz+0.00on par
VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC jazz ↓

VIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC jazz or draw
69%
FC jazz or VIFK
79%
Draw or VIFK
52%

Winning margin

FC jazz wins by 2+
28%
VIFK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC jazz 1+ goals
88%
FC jazz 2+ goals
63%
FC jazz 3+ goals
35%
VIFK 1+ goals
82%
VIFK 2+ goals
51%
VIFK 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC jazz (draw refunded)
60%
VIFK (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC jazz at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

VIFK away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC jazz attack 1.82 + VIFK defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.13

VIFK attack 1.64 + FC jazz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC jazz scores more
48%
level
21%
VIFK scores more
31%

FC jazz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC jazz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC jazz 2 – 1 VIFK

FC jazz beat VIFK 2-1 in Ykkönen on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Porin Stadion in Pori.