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FC jazz vs VIFK — Suomen Cup 2018

FC jazz
FC jazz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
VIFK
VIFK
5/31/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundPorin Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC jazz17%
×Draw17%
VIFK65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC jazz
1.31
VIFK
2.65

VIFK creates 102% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC jazz
2.29
VIFK
3.00

allows per match

FC jazz
2.29
VIFK
0.33

finishing

FC jazz+0.00on par
VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC jazz ↓

VIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC jazz or draw
35%
FC jazz or VIFK
83%
Draw or VIFK
83%

Winning margin

FC jazz wins by 2+
7%
VIFK wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

FC jazz 1+ goals
73%
FC jazz 2+ goals
38%
FC jazz 3+ goals
14%
VIFK 1+ goals
93%
VIFK 2+ goals
74%
VIFK 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

FC jazz (draw refunded)
21%
VIFK (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC jazz at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

VIFK away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC jazz attack 2.29 + VIFK defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

VIFK attack 3.00 + FC jazz defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FC jazz scores more
17%
level
17%
VIFK scores more
65%

VIFK at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "VIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: FC jazz 0–2 VIFK

VIFK beat FC jazz 2-0 in Suomen Cup on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Porin Stadion in Pori.