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FC Inter Wanica vs Bintang Lair — Eerste Divisie 2019

FC Inter Wanica
FC Inter Wanica
FT
2 – 2
Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
4/10/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 7Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Inter Wanica48%
×Draw20%
Bintang Lair33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Inter Wanica
2.41
Bintang Lair
1.99

FC Inter Wanica creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Inter Wanica
1.19
Bintang Lair
1.31

allows per match

FC Inter Wanica
2.67
Bintang Lair
3.63

finishing

FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par
Bintang Lair+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Inter Wanica ↓

Bintang Lair →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

FC Inter Wanica or draw
67%
FC Inter Wanica or Bintang Lair
80%
Draw or Bintang Lair
52%

Winning margin

FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+
29%
Bintang Lair wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals
91%
FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals
69%
FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals
43%
Bintang Lair 1+ goals
86%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
59%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)
59%
Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Inter Wanica at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.67 · 57 matches

Bintang Lair away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.19 + Bintang Lair defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.41

Bintang Lair attack 1.31 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Inter Wanica scores more
48%
level
20%
Bintang Lair scores more
33%

FC Inter Wanica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Inter Wanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: FC Inter Wanica 2–2 Bintang Lair

FC Inter Wanica and Bintang Lair drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.