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Bintang Lair vs FC Inter Wanica — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
FT
3 – 4
FC Inter Wanica
FC Inter Wanica
7/20/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 18Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bintang Lair35%
×Draw19%
FC Inter Wanica46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
2.12
FC Inter Wanica
2.43

FC Inter Wanica creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
FC Inter Wanica
1.17

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
FC Inter Wanica
2.68

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

FC Inter Wanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
54%
Bintang Lair or FC Inter Wanica
81%
Draw or FC Inter Wanica
65%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
19%
FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
88%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
62%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
35%
FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals
91%
FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals
69%
FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
43%
FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

FC Inter Wanica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.68 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.12

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.17 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
35%
level
19%
FC Inter Wanica scores more
46%

FC Inter Wanica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Inter Wanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bintang Lair vs FC Inter Wanica

FC Inter Wanica beat Bintang Lair 4-3 in Eerste Divisie on July 20, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.