FC Helsingor 4–1 Brønshøj: Result & Stats

FC Helsingor

FT

4 – 1

Brønshøj

H. Bonnesen 88'

N. Mortensen 74' (pen), 57'

N. Hansen 22'

M. Ronne 27'

3/6/2020

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Helsingor52%

×Draw23%

Brønshøj24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC HelsingorExpected goals in this matchBrønshøj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.13

FC Helsingor

1.77

Brønshøj

1.13

FC Helsingor creates 57% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

1.93

creates per match

0.85

1.41

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

FC Helsingor

1.93

Brønshøj

0.85

allows per match

FC Helsingor

1.41

Brønshøj

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Brønshøj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Helsingor ↓

Brønshøj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Helsingor or draw

76%

FC Helsingor or Brønshøj

77%

Draw or Brønshøj

48%

Winning margin

FC Helsingor wins by 2+

29%

Brønshøj wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Helsingor 1+ goals

83%

FC Helsingor 2+ goals

53%

FC Helsingor 3+ goals

26%

Brønshøj 1+ goals

68%

Brønshøj 2+ goals

31%

Brønshøj 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)

68%

Brønshøj (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Helsingor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

Brønshøj away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Helsingor attack 1.93 + Brønshøj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Brønshøj attack 0.85 + FC Helsingor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Helsingor scores more

52%

level

23%

Brønshøj scores more

24%

FC Helsingor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

N. Hansen

27'

M. Ronne

31'

D. Norouzi

57'

N. Mortensen

74'

N. MortensenPenalty

83'

J. Sorensen

83'

J. Sorensen

88'

H. Bonnesen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff