Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Gutersloh vs Bövinghausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
10/16/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 10Heidewaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC Gutersloh62%
×Draw20%
Bövinghausen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gutersloh
2.17
Bövinghausen
1.09

FC Gutersloh creates 99% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 47 away

creates per match

FC Gutersloh
1.83
Bövinghausen
1.30

allows per match

FC Gutersloh
0.89
Bövinghausen
2.51

finishing

FC Gutersloh+0.00on par
Bövinghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gutersloh ↓

Bövinghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Gutersloh or draw
82%
FC Gutersloh or Bövinghausen
80%
Draw or Bövinghausen
38%

Winning margin

FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
39%
Bövinghausen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
89%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
64%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
36%
Bövinghausen 1+ goals
66%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
30%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
77%
Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gutersloh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Bövinghausen away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.51 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gutersloh attack 1.83 + Bövinghausen defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.17

Bövinghausen attack 1.30 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Gutersloh scores more
62%
level
20%
Bövinghausen scores more
18%

FC Gutersloh at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: FC Gutersloh 4–1 Bövinghausen

FC Gutersloh beat Bövinghausen 4-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Heidewaldstadion in Gütersloh.