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Bövinghausen vs FC Gutersloh — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
4/10/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 27Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bövinghausen21%
×Draw20%
FC Gutersloh59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.30
FC Gutersloh
2.25

FC Gutersloh creates 73% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
FC Gutersloh
1.67

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
FC Gutersloh
0.94

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
FC Gutersloh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

FC Gutersloh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
41%
Bövinghausen or FC Gutersloh
80%
Draw or FC Gutersloh
79%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
9%
FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
73%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
37%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
14%
FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
89%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
65%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
27%
FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

FC Gutersloh away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.30

FC Gutersloh attack 1.67 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
21%
level
20%
FC Gutersloh scores more
59%

FC Gutersloh at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 1–2 FC Gutersloh

FC Gutersloh beat Bövinghausen 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.