FC Gomel vs FC Dnepr Mogilev — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 69+ matches
FC Gomel55%
FC Dnepr Mogilev21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Gomel creates 78% more chances
Season form · 110 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Gomel ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Gomel at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 110 matches
FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.07 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Gomel attack 1.40 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.75 + FC Gomel defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
FC Gomel at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Bate Borisov
Shakhter Soligorsk
Dinamo Minsk
FC Vitebsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Slutsk
Gorodeya
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC MinskFC Gomel
FC Luch Minsk
Torpedo Minsk
Smolevichi-StiFC Dnepr MogilevIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC Gomel host FC Dnepr Mogilev on Sunday, 20 October 2024 at 14:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: FC Gomel 1–1 FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Gomel and FC Dnepr Mogilev drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 20, 2024.
The match was played at Stadyen Central'ny in Gomel.