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FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Gomel — Premier League 2018

FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Gomel
FC Gomel
5/27/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev29%
×Draw27%
FC Gomel44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.06
FC Gomel
1.39

FC Gomel creates 31% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 110 away

creates per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.87
FC Gomel
1.19

allows per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.58
FC Gomel
1.25

finishing

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par
FC Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓

FC Gomel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw
56%
FC Dnepr Mogilev or FC Gomel
73%
Draw or FC Gomel
71%

Winning margin

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
11%
FC Gomel wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
65%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
29%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
9%
FC Gomel 1+ goals
75%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
40%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
39%
FC Gomel (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

FC Gomel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.87 + FC Gomel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

FC Gomel attack 1.19 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
29%
level
27%
FC Gomel scores more
44%

FC Gomel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 FC Gomel

FC Gomel beat FC Dnepr Mogilev 1-0 in Premier League on May 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Spartak in Mogilev.