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FC Fleury 91 W vs Dijon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

FC Fleury 91 W
FC Fleury 91 W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dijon W
Dijon W
2/21/2026Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 16Terrain Walter Felder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

FC Fleury 91 W52%
×Draw24%
Dijon W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Fleury 91 W
1.74
Dijon W
1.09

FC Fleury 91 W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 87 away

creates per match

FC Fleury 91 W
1.56
Dijon W
0.93

allows per match

FC Fleury 91 W
1.25
Dijon W
1.92

finishing

FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par
Dijon W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fleury 91 W ↓

Dijon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Fleury 91 W or draw
76%
FC Fleury 91 W or Dijon W
76%
Draw or Dijon W
48%

Winning margin

FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+
29%
Dijon W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals
82%
FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals
52%
FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals
25%
Dijon W 1+ goals
66%
Dijon W 2+ goals
30%
Dijon W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)
69%
Dijon W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fleury 91 W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

Dijon W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.92 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.56 + Dijon W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.74

Dijon W attack 0.93 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Fleury 91 W scores more
52%
level
24%
Dijon W scores more
24%

FC Fleury 91 W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Fleury 91 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Fleury 91 W vs Dijon W

FC Fleury 91 W and Dijon W drew 0-0 in Feminine Division 1 on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Terrain Walter Felder in Fleury Merogis.