Dijon W 1–1 FC Fleury 91 W: Result & Stats

Dijon W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Fleury 91 W

10/18/2025

Feminine Division 1 · Round 5Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dijon W33%

×Draw25%

FC Fleury 91 W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dijon WExpected goals in this matchFC Fleury 91 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.54

Dijon W

1.35

FC Fleury 91 W

1.54

FC Fleury 91 W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

1.13

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Dijon W

1.13

FC Fleury 91 W

1.33

allows per match

Dijon W

1.75

FC Fleury 91 W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dijon W+0.00on par

FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon W ↓

FC Fleury 91 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dijon W or draw

58%

Dijon W or FC Fleury 91 W

75%

Draw or FC Fleury 91 W

67%

Winning margin

Dijon W wins by 2+

15%

FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dijon W 1+ goals

74%

Dijon W 2+ goals

39%

Dijon W 3+ goals

15%

FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals

79%

FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals

45%

FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Dijon W (draw refunded)

44%

FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

FC Fleury 91 W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon W attack 1.13 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.33 + Dijon W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dijon W scores more

33%

level

25%

FC Fleury 91 W scores more

42%

FC Fleury 91 W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Fleury 91 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff