FC Eindhoven 0–4 ADO Den Haag: Result & Stats

FC Eindhoven

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

ADO Den Haag

M. Waem 67'

D. Lourens 34', 18'

D. Dorenbosch 32' (OG)

11/1/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 13Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

FC Eindhoven35%

×Draw24%

ADO Den Haag41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC EindhovenExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.61

FC Eindhoven

1.45

ADO Den Haag

1.61

ADO Den Haag creates 11% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 95 away

1.62

creates per match

1.77

1.45

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

FC Eindhoven

1.62

ADO Den Haag

1.77

allows per match

FC Eindhoven

1.45

ADO Den Haag

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

ADO Den Haag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw

59%

FC Eindhoven or ADO Den Haag

76%

Draw or ADO Den Haag

65%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

16%

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

77%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

42%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

18%

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

80%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

48%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

45%

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.45 · 147 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.62 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more

35%

level

24%

ADO Den Haag scores more

41%

ADO Den Haag at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Lourens

ADO Den Haag · M

8.3

Match Events

18'

D. Lourens↳ S. van der Sloot

31'

Luuk Verheij

32'

D. DorenboschOwn goal

34'

D. Lourens

46'

T. Persyn← L. Verheij

61'

A. El Bouchataoui← J. Sleegers

67'

M. Waem↳ D. Tomas

70'

J. Kwaaitaal← S. Simons

70'

73'

73'

75'

82'

84'

L. Maasland← D. van Mieghem

84'

I. de Ruijter← S. van der Sloot

84'

D. Granli← D. Tomas

85'

H. Deenen← T. Douglas

85'

T. Simons← S. Blummel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCADO

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots12

2Corners6

13Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots12

4On Target6

4Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

453Total Passes433

342Accurate Passes337

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

7Offsides0