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ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven — Eerste Divisie 2018

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
S. Sylla 90+4'
D. Tomas 47'
E. Rottier 3'
1/31/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 24Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

ADO Den Haag52%
×Draw21%
FC Eindhoven27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
2.10
FC Eindhoven
1.48

ADO Den Haag creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
2.41
FC Eindhoven
1.59

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.37
FC Eindhoven
1.80

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.59scores more
FC Eindhoven-0.59scores less

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
73%
ADO Den Haag or FC Eindhoven
79%
Draw or FC Eindhoven
48%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
30%
FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
88%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
62%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
35%
FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
77%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
43%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
66%
FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.37 · 5 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.41 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

FC Eindhoven attack 1.59 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
52%
level
21%
FC Eindhoven scores more
27%

ADO Den Haag at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
D. TomasADO Den HaagADO Den Haag · D
8.2

Match Events

3'
E. Rottier↳ A. El Bouchataoui
21'
R. Janga← H. Deenen
42'
Achraf El Bouchataoui
43'
Steven Van Der Sloot
46'
L. Reischl← D. Lourens
47'
D. Tomas↳ D. van Mieghem
62'
S. Simons← S. Blummel
68'
Collin Seedorf
71'
I. Dijkhuizen← L. Maasland
74'
Daan Huisman
80'
F. Limouri← A. El Bouchataoui
84'
J. Geoffrey← S. van der Sloot
90+8'
Daan Huisman
90+12'
Evan Rottier
90+8'
Daan Huisman
90+6'
K. Sürmeli← D. van Mieghem
90+4'
S. Sylla↳ L. Reischl

Possession

72%ADO

Shots

17ADO

Pass accuracy

59%ADO

Statistics

ADOFC
Overview
72%Possession28%
17Total Shots6
11Corners2
11Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots6
5On Target4
6Off Target2
6Blocked0
9Inside Box6
8Outside Box0
Passing
72%Possession28%
594Total Passes242
493Accurate Passes141
83%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards2

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven

ADO Den Haag beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 31, 2025.

Goals: E. Rottier (3'), D. Tomas (47'), S. Sylla (90+4').

ADO Den Haag controlled possession (72%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Bingoal Stadion in ‘s-Gravenhage.