FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan — Premier League 2018
Naftan score first in only 23% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
FC Dnepr Mogilev39%
Naftan36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 57 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.70 · 57 matches
Naftan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.84 + Naftan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.39
Naftan attack 0.94 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
FC Dnepr Mogilev at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
8 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Bate Borisov
Shakhter Soligorsk
Dinamo Minsk
FC Vitebsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Slutsk
Gorodeya
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Minsk
FC Gomel
FC Luch Minsk
Torpedo Minsk
Smolevichi-StiFC Dnepr MogilevIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC Dnepr Mogilev host Naftan on Saturday, 1 August 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
FC Dnepr Mogilev face Naftan (Premier League)
Premier League returns with FC Dnepr Mogilev hosting Naftan. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
FC Dnepr Mogilev host Naftan at Stadion Spartak.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.