FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Minsk — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 59+ matches
FC Dnepr Mogilev32%
FC Minsk41%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Minsk creates 15% more chances
Season form · 59 home / 115 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.66 · 59 matches
FC Minsk away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.53 · 115 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.81 + FC Minsk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17
FC Minsk attack 1.04 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
FC Minsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "FC Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
FC Minsk substitutes
Bate Borisov
Shakhter Soligorsk
Dinamo Minsk
FC Vitebsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Slutsk
Gorodeya
FC Isloch Minsk R.FC Minsk
FC Gomel
FC Luch Minsk
Torpedo Minsk
Smolevichi-StiFC Dnepr MogilevIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
FC Dnepr Mogilev host FC Minsk on Friday, 10 July 2026 at 15:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–2 FC Minsk
FC Minsk beat FC Dnepr Mogilev 2-1 in Premier League on July 10, 2026.
Goals: K. Tsepenkov (45'), A. Makas (84'), A. Ksenofontov (90').
FC Minsk controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 4.
The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Mogilev.