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FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Minsk — Premier League 2018

FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Minsk
FC Minsk
Y. Klochkov 82'
F. Lebedev 22'
5/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev32%
×Draw26%
FC Minsk41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.19
FC Minsk
1.38

FC Minsk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 114 away

creates per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.84
FC Minsk
1.05

allows per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.70
FC Minsk
1.54

finishing

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par
FC Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓

FC Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw
59%
FC Dnepr Mogilev or FC Minsk
74%
Draw or FC Minsk
68%

Winning margin

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
13%
FC Minsk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
70%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
33%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
12%
FC Minsk 1+ goals
75%
FC Minsk 2+ goals
40%
FC Minsk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
44%
FC Minsk (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.70 · 57 matches

FC Minsk away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.54 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.84 + FC Minsk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.19

FC Minsk attack 1.05 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
32%
level
26%
FC Minsk scores more
41%

FC Minsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
F. Lebedev
37'
Aleksandr Mikhalenko
44'
Yuri Klochkov
46'
D. Dongo← D. Aliseyko
46'
S. Glebko← G. Vershinin
57'
R. Pechura← E. Malashevich
60'
D. Ankudinov← I. Kargbo
73'
A. Aleksandrovich← I. Boltrushevich
82'
Y. Klochkov
88'
M. Shevchenko← D. Dushevskiy
90+1'
P. Bordukov← N. Krasnov

Statistics

FCFC
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Premier League: FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–1 FC Minsk

FC Dnepr Mogilev and FC Minsk drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 10, 2024.

Goals: F. Lebedev (22'), Y. Klochkov (82').

The match was played at Stadyen Spartak in Mogilev.