FC Differdange 03 2–2 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

FC Differdange 03

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

F91 Dudelange

5/28/2025

Cup · FinalStade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Differdange 0338%

×Draw20%

F91 Dudelange42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Differdange 03Expected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

2.33

FC Differdange 03

2.21

F91 Dudelange

2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

3.22

creates per match

4.00

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

FC Differdange 03

3.22

F91 Dudelange

4.00

allows per match

FC Differdange 03

0.67

F91 Dudelange

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw

58%

FC Differdange 03 or F91 Dudelange

80%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

62%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+

21%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals

89%

FC Differdange 03 2+ goals

65%

FC Differdange 03 3+ goals

38%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

90%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

67%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)

47%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 3.22 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.21

F91 Dudelange attack 4.00 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more

38%

level

20%

F91 Dudelange scores more

42%

F91 Dudelange at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff