FC Copenhagen 2–0 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

FC Copenhagen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Basel 1893

Y. Moukoko 84' (pen)

A. Cornelius 46'

8/27/2025

UEFA Champions League · Play-offsParken Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Copenhagen61%

×Draw21%

FC Basel 189318%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.04

FC Copenhagen

2.09

FC Basel 1893

1.04

FC Copenhagen creates 101% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

1.69

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

FC Copenhagen

1.69

FC Basel 1893

1.00

allows per match

FC Copenhagen

1.08

FC Basel 1893

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw

82%

FC Copenhagen or FC Basel 1893

79%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

39%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

38%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

88%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

62%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

34%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

65%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

28%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

77%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 1.69 + FC Basel 1893 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.09

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more

61%

level

21%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

18%

FC Copenhagen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Cornelius↳ E. Achouri

61'

Y. Moukoko← E. Achouri

64'

W. Clem← M. Mattsson

68'

A. Ajeti← M. Broschinski

79'

K. Koindredi← L. Leroy

79'

Junior Ze← M. Soticek

80'

V. Claesson← A. Cornelius

80'

Robert← J. Larsson

84'

Y. MoukokoPenalty

85'

Viktor Claesson

86'

Kaio Eduardo← X. Shaqiri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots20

3Corners6

25Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots20

7On Target5

3Off Target6

1Blocked9

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box11

Passing

43%Possession57%

403Total Passes534

318Accurate Passes462

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

25Fouls15

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3