FC Basel 1893 1–1 FC Copenhagen: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Copenhagen

X. Shaqiri 14' (pen)

Gabriel Pereira 45'

8/20/2025

UEFA Champions League · Play-offsSt. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Basel 189342%

×Draw26%

FC Copenhagen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchFC Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

FC Basel 1893

1.46

FC Copenhagen

1.23

FC Basel 1893 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.71

1.75

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.00

FC Copenhagen

0.71

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.75

FC Copenhagen

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

68%

FC Basel 1893 or FC Copenhagen

74%

Draw or FC Copenhagen

58%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

20%

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

77%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

43%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

18%

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

71%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

35%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

57%

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC Copenhagen attack 0.71 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

42%

level

26%

FC Copenhagen scores more

32%

FC Basel 1893 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Rodrigo Huescas

14'

X. ShaqiriPenalty

28'

Keigo Tsunemoto

43'

Jonas Adjei Adjetey

45+2'

Leo Leroy

45'

Gabriel Pereira↳ M. Lopez

53'

Lukas Lerager

62'

Jordan Larsson

64'

Y. Moukoko← Robert

68'

M. Broschinski← A. Ajeti

70'

M. Mattsson← J. Larsson

77'

K. Koindredi← M. Soticek

82'

Jonas Adjei Adjetey

82'

Jonas Adjei Adjetey

83'

V. Claesson← W. Clem

84'

N. Vouilloz← L. Leroy

88'

Andreas CorneliusGoal cancelled

90'

Adrian Leon Barišić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots11

2Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots11

6On Target4

4Off Target2

1Blocked5

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

430Total Passes521

365Accurate Passes453

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls12

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2