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FC Copenhagen vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa League 2026

FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
J. Stage 4'
B. Verbič 70'
11/7/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 4Telia Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Copenhagen46%
×Draw26%
Dynamo Kyiv28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Copenhagen
1.44
Dynamo Kyiv
1.05

FC Copenhagen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Copenhagen
1.18
Dynamo Kyiv
1.38

allows per match

FC Copenhagen
0.73
Dynamo Kyiv
1.69

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw
72%
FC Copenhagen or Dynamo Kyiv
74%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
54%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
22%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
76%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
42%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
18%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
65%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
28%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
63%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 1.18 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.38 + FC Copenhagen defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more
46%
level
26%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
28%

FC Copenhagen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
B. VerbičDynamo KyivDynamo Kyiv · F
7.9

Match Events

4'
J. Stage
55'
M. Daramy← R. Falk
64'
Zeca
69'
K. Bartolec← P. Bengtsson
70'
B. Verbič↳ V. Tsygankov
82'
N. Thomsen← V. Fischer
83'
Victor Nelsson
83'
Michael Santos
83'
Artem Shabanov
89'
C. de Pena← B. Verbič

Possession

38%FC

Shots

3FC

Pass accuracy

45%FC

Statistics

FCDynamo
Overview
38%Possession62%
3Total Shots17
1Corners5
15Fouls10
Shots
3Total Shots17
1On Target4
2Off Target10
0Blocked3
2Inside Box8
1Outside Box9
Passing
38%Possession62%
324Total Passes520
210Accurate Passes405
65%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

UEFA Europa League: FC Copenhagen 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv

FC Copenhagen and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa League on November 7, 2019.

Goals: J. Stage (4'), B. Verbič (70').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Telia Parken in København.