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Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Copenhagen — UEFA Europa League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
A. Shabanov 53'
P. Soteriou 2'
10/24/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv22%
×Draw30%
FC Copenhagen49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
0.73
FC Copenhagen
1.25

FC Copenhagen creates 71% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.69
FC Copenhagen
1.11

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.38
FC Copenhagen
0.78

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

FC Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
51%
Dynamo Kyiv or FC Copenhagen
70%
Draw or FC Copenhagen
78%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
6%
FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
52%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
17%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
4%
FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
71%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
36%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
31%
FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.69 + FC Copenhagen defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

FC Copenhagen attack 1.11 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
22%
level
30%
FC Copenhagen scores more
49%

FC Copenhagen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
A. ShabanovDynamo KyivDynamo Kyiv · D
8.1

Match Events

2'
P. Soteriou↳ J. Stage
22'
Serhiy Sydorchuk
46'
Benjamin Verbič
51'
Jens Stage
53'
A. Shabanov↳ V. Tsygankov
55'
Tomasz Kędziora
59'
Karlo Bartolec
68'
Artem Besedin
75'
N. Thomsen← V. Fischer
80'
D. Harmash← C. de Pena
87'
G. Varela← R. Falk
89'
N. Bendtner← M. Santos

Possession

61%Dynamo

Shots

13Dynamo

Pass accuracy

55%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoFC
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots9
3Corners5
17Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots9
3On Target4
8Off Target3
2Blocked2
10Inside Box7
3Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
509Total Passes315
418Accurate Passes212
82%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls17
4Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Copenhagen

Dynamo Kyiv and FC Copenhagen drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa League on October 24, 2019.

Goals: P. Soteriou (2'), A. Shabanov (53').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Kiev.