FC Clinceni 0–0 AFC Hermannstadt: Result & Stats

FC Clinceni

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Hermannstadt

1/17/2021

Liga I · Round 17Stadionul Central Ion Comşa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Clinceni36%

×Draw28%

AFC Hermannstadt36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ClinceniExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

FC Clinceni

1.19

AFC Hermannstadt

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 138 away

0.97

creates per match

0.90

1.47

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FC Clinceni

0.97

AFC Hermannstadt

0.90

allows per match

FC Clinceni

1.47

AFC Hermannstadt

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw

64%

FC Clinceni or AFC Hermannstadt

72%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

64%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+

15%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals

70%

FC Clinceni 2+ goals

33%

FC Clinceni 3+ goals

12%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

70%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

33%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)

50%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FC Clinceni scores more

36%

level

28%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

36%

FC Clinceni at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff