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AFC Hermannstadt vs FC Clinceni — Liga I 2018

AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
8/16/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 6Stadionul Trans-Sil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt52%
×Draw25%
FC Clinceni23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Hermannstadt
1.59
FC Clinceni
0.98

AFC Hermannstadt creates 62% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 59 away

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.20
FC Clinceni
0.90

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.06
FC Clinceni
1.98

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw
77%
AFC Hermannstadt or FC Clinceni
75%
Draw or FC Clinceni
48%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
27%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
80%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
47%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
21%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
62%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
26%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
69%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more
52%
level
25%
FC Clinceni scores more
23%

AFC Hermannstadt at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Hermannstadt vs FC Clinceni

AFC Hermannstadt beat FC Clinceni 2-1 in Liga I on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Trans-Sil in Târgu Mureş.