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FC Cincinnati II vs Chattanooga — MLS Next Pro 2026

FC Cincinnati II
FC Cincinnati II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Chattanooga
Chattanooga
5/17/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageNKU Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Cincinnati II39%
×Draw23%
Chattanooga38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati II
1.65
Chattanooga
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati II
1.53
Chattanooga
1.60

allows per match

FC Cincinnati II
1.67
Chattanooga
1.76

finishing

FC Cincinnati II+0.00on par
Chattanooga+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati II ↓

Chattanooga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati II or draw
62%
FC Cincinnati II or Chattanooga
77%
Draw or Chattanooga
61%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati II wins by 2+
19%
Chattanooga wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati II 1+ goals
81%
FC Cincinnati II 2+ goals
49%
FC Cincinnati II 3+ goals
23%
Chattanooga 1+ goals
81%
Chattanooga 2+ goals
49%
Chattanooga 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati II (draw refunded)
50%
Chattanooga (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

Chattanooga away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati II attack 1.53 + Chattanooga defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Chattanooga attack 1.60 + FC Cincinnati II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Cincinnati II scores more
39%
level
23%
Chattanooga scores more
38%

FC Cincinnati II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Cincinnati II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Cincinnati II vs Chattanooga

Chattanooga beat FC Cincinnati II 3-1 in MLS Next Pro on May 17, 2026.

The match was played at NKU Soccer Stadium.