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Chattanooga vs FC Cincinnati II — MLS Next Pro 2026

Chattanooga
Chattanooga
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Cincinnati II
FC Cincinnati II
3/23/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 3Finley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chattanooga58%
×Draw21%
FC Cincinnati II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chattanooga
2.01
FC Cincinnati II
1.10

Chattanooga creates 83% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 54 away

creates per match

Chattanooga
1.73
FC Cincinnati II
1.09

allows per match

Chattanooga
1.12
FC Cincinnati II
2.30

finishing

Chattanooga+0.00on par
FC Cincinnati II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chattanooga ↓

FC Cincinnati II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chattanooga or draw
80%
Chattanooga or FC Cincinnati II
79%
Draw or FC Cincinnati II
42%

Winning margin

Chattanooga wins by 2+
35%
FC Cincinnati II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chattanooga 1+ goals
87%
Chattanooga 2+ goals
59%
Chattanooga 3+ goals
32%
FC Cincinnati II 1+ goals
67%
FC Cincinnati II 2+ goals
30%
FC Cincinnati II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chattanooga (draw refunded)
74%
FC Cincinnati II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chattanooga at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

FC Cincinnati II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chattanooga attack 1.73 + FC Cincinnati II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.01

FC Cincinnati II attack 1.09 + Chattanooga defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chattanooga scores more
58%
level
21%
FC Cincinnati II scores more
20%

Chattanooga at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chattanooga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chattanooga vs FC Cincinnati II

Chattanooga beat FC Cincinnati II 3-0 in MLS Next Pro on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Finley Stadium in Chattanooga, Tennessee.