FC Cartagena 2–2 Europa Fc: Result & Stats

FC Cartagena

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Europa Fc

1/24/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Cartagena46%

×Draw27%

Europa Fc27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CartagenaExpected goals in this matchEuropa Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.02

FC Cartagena

1.40

Europa Fc

1.02

FC Cartagena creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

1.21

0.84

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FC Cartagena

1.37

Europa Fc

1.21

allows per match

FC Cartagena

0.84

Europa Fc

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Europa Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw

73%

FC Cartagena or Europa Fc

73%

Draw or Europa Fc

54%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

22%

Europa Fc wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

75%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

41%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

17%

Europa Fc 1+ goals

64%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

27%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

62%

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.37 + Europa Fc defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Europa Fc attack 1.21 + FC Cartagena defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Cartagena scores more

46%

level

27%

Europa Fc scores more

27%

FC Cartagena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff