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FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau — Bundesliga 2018

FC BW Linz
FC BW Linz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
10/21/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 11Hofmann Personal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC BW Linz47%
×Draw26%
Austria Lustenau27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC BW Linz
1.53
Austria Lustenau
1.10

FC BW Linz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 33 away

creates per match

FC BW Linz
1.42
Austria Lustenau
0.91

allows per match

FC BW Linz
1.29
Austria Lustenau
1.64

finishing

FC BW Linz+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC BW Linz ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC BW Linz or draw
73%
FC BW Linz or Austria Lustenau
74%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
53%

Winning margin

FC BW Linz wins by 2+
24%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC BW Linz 1+ goals
78%
FC BW Linz 2+ goals
45%
FC BW Linz 3+ goals
20%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
67%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
30%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC BW Linz (draw refunded)
63%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC BW Linz at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC BW Linz attack 1.42 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Austria Lustenau attack 0.91 + FC BW Linz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC BW Linz scores more
47%
level
26%
Austria Lustenau scores more
27%

FC BW Linz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC BW Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: FC BW Linz 0–0 Austria Lustenau

FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Linz.