Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC BW Linz
FC BW Linz
5/11/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 9ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau40%
×Draw25%
FC BW Linz35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau
1.48
FC BW Linz
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 48 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau
1.30
FC BW Linz
0.81

allows per match

Austria Lustenau
1.94
FC BW Linz
1.67

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par
FC BW Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

FC BW Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw
65%
Austria Lustenau or FC BW Linz
75%
Draw or FC BW Linz
60%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
19%
FC BW Linz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
77%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
43%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
19%
FC BW Linz 1+ goals
75%
FC BW Linz 2+ goals
40%
FC BW Linz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
53%
FC BW Linz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

FC BW Linz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + FC BW Linz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC BW Linz attack 0.81 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more
40%
level
25%
FC BW Linz scores more
35%

Austria Lustenau at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Austria Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz

Austria Lustenau beat FC BW Linz 1-0 in Bundesliga on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz in Bregenz.