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FC Botosani vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

FC Botosani
FC Botosani
Preview
17:00
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
3/6/2027Liga ILiga I · Round 29Stadionul Municipal
Big match
36%
FC Botosani
model favours
36%28%36%

Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

FC Botosani36%
×Draw28%
Universitatea Craiova36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Botosani
1.21
Universitatea Craiova
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 156 home / 155 away

creates per match

FC Botosani
1.30
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

FC Botosani
1.03
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

FC Botosani+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw
64%
FC Botosani or Universitatea Craiova
72%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
64%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+
15%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals
70%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
34%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
12%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
70%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
34%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)
50%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 156 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.30 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + FC Botosani defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FC Botosani scores more
36%
level
28%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
36%

FC Botosani at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Botosani
DLLW
Craiova
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Botosani face Universitatea Craiova (Liga I)

Liga I returns with FC Botosani hosting Universitatea Craiova. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Botosani host Universitatea Craiova at Stadionul Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.