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FC Basel 1893 vs Crusaders FC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
7/21/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundSt. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Basel 189365%
×Draw20%
Crusaders FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
2.16
Crusaders FC
0.94

FC Basel 1893 creates 130% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
2.31
Crusaders FC
0.75

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.13
Crusaders FC
2.00

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
Crusaders FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Crusaders FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
85%
FC Basel 1893 or Crusaders FC
80%
Draw or Crusaders FC
35%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
41%
Crusaders FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
88%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
63%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
36%
Crusaders FC 1+ goals
61%
Crusaders FC 2+ goals
24%
Crusaders FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
81%
Crusaders FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Crusaders FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 2.31 + Crusaders FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

Crusaders FC attack 0.75 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
65%
level
20%
Crusaders FC scores more
15%

FC Basel 1893 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: FC Basel 1893 2–0 Crusaders FC

FC Basel 1893 beat Crusaders FC 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 21, 2022.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.