Crusaders FC 1–1 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Crusaders FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Basel 1893

B. Burns 53'

L. Millar 36'

7/28/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundSeaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crusaders FC42%

×Draw26%

FC Basel 189331%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crusaders FCExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.17

Crusaders FC

1.41

FC Basel 1893

1.17

Crusaders FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

1.75

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Crusaders FC

1.75

FC Basel 1893

1.33

allows per match

Crusaders FC

1.00

FC Basel 1893

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crusaders FC+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders FC ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crusaders FC or draw

69%

Crusaders FC or FC Basel 1893

74%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

58%

Winning margin

Crusaders FC wins by 2+

20%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Crusaders FC 1+ goals

76%

Crusaders FC 2+ goals

41%

Crusaders FC 3+ goals

17%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

69%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

33%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)

58%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders FC attack 1.75 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.41

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.33 + Crusaders FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crusaders FC scores more

42%

level

26%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

31%

Crusaders FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crusaders FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Diouf

FC Basel 1893 · M

7.5

Match Events

21'

Zeki Amdouni

36'

L. Millar

53'

B. Burns

60'

J. McMurray← J. Winchester

68'

N. Katterbach← Arnau Comas

70'

72'

74'

74'

75'

82'

85'

86'

88'

90+3'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrusadersFC

Overview

27%Possession73%

7Total Shots12

2Corners7

15Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots12

3On Target3

3Off Target5

1Blocked4

4Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

27%Possession73%

169Total Passes485

105Accurate Passes418

62%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1