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FC Basel 1893 vs Brondby — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
Pens
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Brondby
Brondby
8/11/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundSt. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Basel 189357%
×Draw23%
Brondby20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.82
Brondby
0.98

FC Basel 1893 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
2.31
Brondby
0.83

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.13
Brondby
1.33

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
Brondby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Brondby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
80%
FC Basel 1893 or Brondby
77%
Draw or Brondby
43%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
33%
Brondby wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
84%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
54%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
27%
Brondby 1+ goals
62%
Brondby 2+ goals
26%
Brondby 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
74%
Brondby (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Brondby away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 2.31 + Brondby defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.82

Brondby attack 0.83 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
57%
level
23%
Brondby scores more
20%

FC Basel 1893 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: FC Basel 1893 2–1 Brondby

FC Basel 1893 beat Brondby 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 11, 2022.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.