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Brondby vs FC Basel 1893 — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Brondby
Brondby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
8/4/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundBrøndby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brondby57%
×Draw22%
FC Basel 189321%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brondby
1.96
FC Basel 1893
1.09

Brondby creates 80% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Brondby
2.86
FC Basel 1893
1.33

allows per match

Brondby
0.86
FC Basel 1893
1.07

finishing

Brondby+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brondby ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brondby or draw
79%
Brondby or FC Basel 1893
78%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
43%

Winning margin

Brondby wins by 2+
34%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brondby 1+ goals
86%
Brondby 2+ goals
58%
Brondby 3+ goals
31%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
66%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
30%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brondby (draw refunded)
73%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brondby at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brondby attack 2.86 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.96

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.33 + Brondby defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Brondby scores more
57%
level
22%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
21%

Brondby at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Brondby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brondby vs FC Basel 1893

Brondby beat FC Basel 1893 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 4, 2022.

The match was played at Brøndby Stadion in Brøndby.