FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich — Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 26+ matches
FC Augsburg24%
Bayern Munich54%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bayern Munich creates 58% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Augsburg ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Augsburg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches
Bayern Munich away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.19 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Augsburg attack 1.31 + Bayern Munich defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25
Bayern Munich attack 2.43 + FC Augsburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Bayern Munich at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Bayern Munich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfL Wolfsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Hertha Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
FC Schalke 04FC Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart
Hannover 96
FC NurnbergIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FC Augsburg host Bayern Munich on Saturday, 27 January 2024 at 14:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich beat FC Augsburg 3-2 in Bundesliga on January 27, 2024.
Goals: A. Pavlović (23'), A. Davies (45+5'), E. Demirović (52', 90+4' pen), H. Kane (58').
Bayern Munich controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 15.
The match was played at WWK Arena in Augsburg.