FC Augsburg 1–3 Bayern München: Result & Stats

FC Augsburg

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Bayern München

4/4/2025

Bundesliga · Round 28WWK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

FC Augsburg24%

×Draw22%

Bayern München54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AugsburgExpected goals in this matchBayern München

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.97

FC Augsburg

1.25

Bayern München

1.97

Bayern München creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

1.31

creates per match

2.43

1.50

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

FC Augsburg

1.31

Bayern München

2.43

allows per match

FC Augsburg

1.50

Bayern München

1.19

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

FC Augsburg+0.11scores more

Bayern München+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Augsburg ↓

Bayern München →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Augsburg or draw

46%

FC Augsburg or Bayern München

78%

Draw or Bayern München

76%

Winning margin

FC Augsburg wins by 2+

10%

Bayern München wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

FC Augsburg 1+ goals

71%

FC Augsburg 2+ goals

36%

FC Augsburg 3+ goals

13%

Bayern München 1+ goals

86%

Bayern München 2+ goals

58%

Bayern München 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

FC Augsburg (draw refunded)

31%

Bayern München (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Augsburg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Bayern München away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.19 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Augsburg attack 1.31 + Bayern München defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bayern München attack 2.43 + FC Augsburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Augsburg scores more

24%

level

22%

Bayern München scores more

54%

Bayern München at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bayern München will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff