FC Astra Giurgiu 3–1 Concordia: Result & Stats

FC Astra Giurgiu

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Concordia

12/9/2018

Liga I · Round 19Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu50%

×Draw25%

Concordia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Astra GiurgiuExpected goals in this matchConcordia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.56

Concordia

1.00

FC Astra Giurgiu creates 56% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 20 away

1.36

creates per match

0.75

1.25

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.36

Concordia

0.75

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.25

Concordia

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

Concordia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw

76%

FC Astra Giurgiu or Concordia

75%

Draw or Concordia

50%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+

26%

Concordia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals

79%

FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals

46%

FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals

21%

Concordia 1+ goals

63%

Concordia 2+ goals

26%

Concordia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)

67%

Concordia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Concordia away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.36 + Concordia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Concordia attack 0.75 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more

50%

level

25%

Concordia scores more

24%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff