Concordia vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Concordia29%
FC Astra Giurgiu44%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Astra Giurgiu creates 29% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 55 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Concordia ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Concordia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches
FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Concordia attack 1.00 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07
FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.15 + Concordia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
FC Astra Giurgiu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
CFR 1907 Cluj
FCSB
Universitatea CraiovaFC Astra Giurgiu
Viitorul Constanta
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FC Botosani
Politehnica Iasi
Dinamo Bucuresti
AFC Hermannstadt
GAZ Metan Medias
Dunarea Calarasi
FC VoluntariConcordiaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Concordia host FC Astra Giurgiu on Sunday, 19 November 2017 at 16:00. The match is part of the Liga I 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Concordia vs FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu beat Concordia 2-1 in Liga I on November 19, 2017.
Goals: P. Batin (15' pen), S. Nyuiadzi (43'), Alexandru Ioniţă II (54' pen).
Concordia controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 9.
The match was played at Stadionul Concordia in Chiajna.