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FC Astra Giurgiu vs Arges Pitesti — Liga I 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
4/24/2021Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 3Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu43%
×Draw27%
Arges Pitesti29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.33
Arges Pitesti
1.05

FC Astra Giurgiu creates 27% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 80 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.36
Arges Pitesti
0.86

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.25
Arges Pitesti
1.31

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
71%
FC Astra Giurgiu or Arges Pitesti
73%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
57%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
20%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
74%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
38%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
15%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
65%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
28%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
59%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.36 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arges Pitesti attack 0.86 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
43%
level
27%
Arges Pitesti scores more
29%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FC Astra Giurgiu 0–1 Arges Pitesti

Arges Pitesti beat FC Astra Giurgiu 1-0 in Liga I on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.