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Arges Pitesti vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
10/16/2020Liga ILiga I · Round 7Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Arges Pitesti35%
×Draw29%
FC Astra Giurgiu36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.10
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 54 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.05
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.13

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
1.11
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.15

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
64%
Arges Pitesti or FC Astra Giurgiu
71%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
65%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
14%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
67%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
30%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
10%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
67%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
31%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
49%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 80 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.05 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
35%
level
29%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
36%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Arges Pitesti 1–0 FC Astra Giurgiu

Arges Pitesti beat FC Astra Giurgiu 1-0 in Liga I on October 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin in Piteşti.