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FC Astoria Walldorf vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. — League #86 2026

FC Astoria Walldorf
FC Astoria Walldorf
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
12/7/2024League #86League #86 · Südwest - 20Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Astoria Walldorf52%
×Draw20%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astoria Walldorf
2.33
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.67

FC Astoria Walldorf creates 40% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Astoria Walldorf
2.00
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.33

allows per match

FC Astoria Walldorf
2.00
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
2.67

finishing

FC Astoria Walldorf+0.00on par
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astoria Walldorf ↓

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

FC Astoria Walldorf or draw
72%
FC Astoria Walldorf or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
80%
Draw or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
48%

Winning margin

FC Astoria Walldorf wins by 2+
32%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Astoria Walldorf 1+ goals
90%
FC Astoria Walldorf 2+ goals
67%
FC Astoria Walldorf 3+ goals
41%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1+ goals
81%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2+ goals
50%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Astoria Walldorf (draw refunded)
65%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astoria Walldorf at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astoria Walldorf attack 2.00 + Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. attack 1.33 + FC Astoria Walldorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Astoria Walldorf scores more
52%
level
20%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. scores more
28%

FC Astoria Walldorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Astoria Walldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Astoria Walldorf vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. beat FC Astoria Walldorf 3-2 in League #86 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark in Walldorf.