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Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. vs FC Astoria Walldorf — League #86 2026

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Astoria Walldorf
FC Astoria Walldorf
8/10/2024League #86League #86 · Südwest - 3Sportpark Johannisau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.32%
×Draw23%
FC Astoria Walldorf45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.47
FC Astoria Walldorf
1.80

FC Astoria Walldorf creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.60
FC Astoria Walldorf
2.00

allows per match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.60
FC Astoria Walldorf
1.33

finishing

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.+0.00on par
FC Astoria Walldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. ↓

FC Astoria Walldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. or draw
55%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. or FC Astoria Walldorf
77%
Draw or FC Astoria Walldorf
68%

Winning margin

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. wins by 2+
15%
FC Astoria Walldorf wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1+ goals
77%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2+ goals
43%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3+ goals
18%
FC Astoria Walldorf 1+ goals
83%
FC Astoria Walldorf 2+ goals
54%
FC Astoria Walldorf 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. (draw refunded)
41%
FC Astoria Walldorf (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

FC Astoria Walldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. attack 1.60 + FC Astoria Walldorf defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

FC Astoria Walldorf attack 2.00 + Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. scores more
32%
level
23%
FC Astoria Walldorf scores more
45%

FC Astoria Walldorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Astoria Walldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. vs FC Astoria Walldorf

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. beat FC Astoria Walldorf 2-1 in League #86 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Johannisau in Fulda.