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FC Astana vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa League 2026

FC Astana
FC Astana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
B. Verbič 29'
11/29/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 5Astana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Astana48%
×Draw23%
Dynamo Kyiv29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astana
1.79
Dynamo Kyiv
1.34

FC Astana creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Astana
1.90
Dynamo Kyiv
1.38

allows per match

FC Astana
1.30
Dynamo Kyiv
1.69

finishing

FC Astana+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astana ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Astana or draw
71%
FC Astana or Dynamo Kyiv
77%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
52%

Winning margin

FC Astana wins by 2+
26%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Astana 1+ goals
83%
FC Astana 2+ goals
53%
FC Astana 3+ goals
26%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
74%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
39%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Astana (draw refunded)
62%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astana at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astana attack 1.90 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.38 + FC Astana defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Astana scores more
48%
level
23%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
29%

FC Astana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Astana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
M. BurdaDynamo KyivDynamo Kyiv · D
8.0

Match Events

29'
B. Verbič↳ V. Tsygankov
32'
Evgeny Postnikov
58'
S. Muzhikov← R. Almeyda
62'
R. Janga← J. Kabananga
64'
D. Harmash← M. Shaparenko
76'
D. Shomko← B. Zainutdinov
76'
S. Sydorchuk← B. Verbič
84'
M. Moroziuk← V. Tsygankov
87'
László Kleinheisler
90'
Denys Garmash
90'
Tchê Tchê

Possession

53%FC

Shots

23FC

Pass accuracy

51%FC

Statistics

FCDynamo
Overview
53%Possession47%
23Total Shots6
0Corners2
16Fouls16
Shots
23Total Shots6
3On Target2
18Off Target2
2Blocked2
13Inside Box2
10Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
491Total Passes440
399Accurate Passes344
81%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Astana vs Dynamo Kyiv

Dynamo Kyiv beat FC Astana 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on November 29, 2018.

Goals: B. Verbič (29').

FC Astana controlled possession (53%) and registered 23 shots to 6.

The match was played at Astana Arena in Astana.